First thing to note is that agarwood is an organic raw material, comprising many grades in a single tree. It’s from one and the same tree that we can get kien, sieah, incense-grade, sinking-grade, and plain white wood. We don’t find a tree that contains only one or the other – we don’t find one tree for China, another for the Gulf; one that is wholly sinking-grade or green Kyara. The same tree can be used to produce various grades of oil, from good to bad.
The current supply of agarwood has been an accumulative process, with very lengthy maturation cycles. You need decades for one tree to be worth anything, after which a market catering to thousands all goes after it. It’s a very limited pot. The trees don’t grow overnight, so we don’t have a new harvest to look forward to every other season like we do oranges or barley. It takes a lot less time to wipe out the supply than it takes for it to be replenished. There comes a tipping point. Same thing is happening to coral. Generations of growth, wiped out in no time. Before too long we’ll be reading how the Great Barrier Reef is not that great anymore.
We don’t claim that the mass disappearance of agarwood species is thanks to the Chinese alone. In fact, most of the damage has been done before they even stepped on the scene. Wild wood in Cambodia has probably been gone before a single bead was carved in China. The question is: how come the wood is finished in Cambodia (and Thailand, and Laos, and Vietnam, for that matter)?
The answer lies in your second point: the Old Arabian Houses. I’m not going out on a limb saying that the Arabian market is by and large responsible for what happened in Cambodia. There, the Gulf companies have nothing to do with the production front. They buy ready-made goods, and lots of them, at low-cost. We know several of the Gulf’s major suppliers, and it’s the same story of mass demand. And we know, or I hope most of us do, what happens to the oil afterwards.
From what we see, the reaction of the Gulf market is to just keep doing what they do. That the old Arabian houses sell oud oil is a myth. The Arabian houses sell synthetic perfumes, supposed to replicate oud. What comes out of the old Arabian houses is as much of a comparison as that coming from Dior or Tom Ford.
There’s no shortage with the Arabs, just like there’s no shortage of Gucci. They have enough chemicals to basically stay in business forever. If we believe that we’re getting ‘pure’ oud from them, then we have nothing to worry about. If what’s being offered on the Arab market is agarwood oil, then there’s reason to rejoice because their oils will be around for a long time to come.
On the other hand, if supply is so readily available, how come there’s only one Borneo 3000? Thousands of distillers, backed by the entire Middle Eastern oud market, have not been able to produce even a drop that can compare. It’s simple math. With such a limited pot to work with, what happens when the festive season starts? With thousands of people buying oud/perfume as gifts, daily, they offer the same thing Hugo Boss is offering: synthesised perfume (good or bad). Nothing more. As for the reaction to the scarcity in Borneo, I don’t remember ever seeing a single Borneo oil coming from them. In fact, if you ask most Gulf customers, it would surprise me if they even knew what ‘Borneo’ means
The fact that we can walk into any store in Dubai or spend 15 minutes online to find oud only testifies to the ‘purity’ of it all. While we’re at it, we can even get some pure musk from the same sites. And for cheap, too.
Best thing to do is to also ask Christopher McMahon, ask Chris Hoeth, ask Trygve, ask Mandy, where’s their oud?